![]() Every company is a tech company today, except maybe for the deli I got lunch from today. Rocket is a mortgage banker, not a tech company. I’m restraining my intense desire to make fun of this hype. "Rocket Companies has a proven record of innovation that drives industry disruption…We see tremendous runway to drive long-term profitable growth by increasing market share in the massive and fragmented mortgage industry and leveraging our technology platform to unlock opportunities in our ecosystem. When it went public, the company said this in its first press release, with fun fintech buzzwords in bold: ![]() The past two years have been interesting for Rocket, to say the least. I am now lowering the target price to $7-8 and suggesting that holders take money off the table. The stock was $6.30 then, and I gave a $10 target price. I stayed negative until this past September 30, when I gave it a cautious Buy. These days stocks don’t trade on valuations, they move on the basis of whether they beat consensus revenue and earnings growth estimates and raise their guidance.Īs long as Rocket keeps doing that, its shares are likely to benefit - and the heavy short interest in this stock could throw gasoline on that upward explosion.I wrote my first report on Rocket ( NYSE: RKT) for Seeking Alpha a bit over two years ago, suggesting a Sell at its $17 price at that time. Indeed, the Journal noted that Rocket sported “a premium valuation before its earnings report of around 11 times FactSet’s consensus 2022 earnings - which is nearly twice that of peers’ - around 6 times.” Short sellers could make the case that Rocket shares are over-valued compare to those of its peers. The stock trades at a big premium to peers Although mortgage rates rose in the last week of February to the highest level since last August, Rocket told investors that “it expected its record origination volume in the fourth quarter would mostly hold steady into the first quarter of 2021,” noted the Journal. That increase is not hurting Rocket’s business. Mortgage originators are generally hurt by rising mortgage rates since it means that fewer people might want to refinance or buy a home. The case to bet that Rocket stock will go down hinges on rising mortgage rates and a high valuation. Rising interest rates could slow demand for mortgages The average price target represents a 3.46% increase from the last price of $24.30,” noted TipRanks. ![]() The average price target is $25.14 with a high forecast of $33.00 and a low forecast of $19.00. “Based on seven analysts offering 12 month price targets for Rocket Companies in the last 3 months. While analyst price targets are hardly scientific, the average target of $25.14 is slightly above where Rocket closed on March 1. As the Journal noted Rocket will pay such shareholders “a new special and non-recurring dividend of $1.11 per share which will total about $2.2 billion.” Trading below its price target Rocket made so much money that it’s issuing a special dividend which will be paid to stockholders as of March 9. Rocket’s per share earnings of $1.09 beat by 22 cents while revenue for the quarter at $4.78 billion - topped forecasts by $80 million, according to .įor the current quarter, Rocket forecasts what the Journal dubbed “better-than-expected guidance.”Īs CFO Julie Booth said, Rocket expects “closed loan volume of $98 billion to $103 billion compared to $51.7 billion in the first quarter of 2020 net rate lock volume of $88 billion to $95 billion, up from $56 billion in the first quarter of 2020 and gain-on-sale margins of 3.6% to 3.9% compared to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2020,” according to Rocket’s Fourth Quarter Earnings Call Transcript. Its fourth quarter results exceeded estimates.
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